PREVISÃO ATRAVÉS DE MAPAS DE PROBABILIDADES - O CASO DAS PRECIPITAÇÕES ANUAIS NO ESTADO DA BAHIA

Resumo

The aim of this paper isto contribute to the analysis of the rainfall distribution in the State of Bahia using quantitative tchniques associated with cartography. We prepared two types of maps indicating the probability of precipation occurence. The calculations are based on the normal curve. For the first type we fixed the critical value of annual precipation and we formulated the question? In our methodological study we fixed the critical value at 800 mm since this is the expected threshold below which the droughts occur. For the second type of aps the question asked is: what is the expected annual precipitation which does not exceed a given probability? In our case we fixed the percentage at 90%. These maps are a relevant instrument in research on droughts and on agricultural planning.